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Summary

All economic timeframes remain positive, with long leading indicators buoyed by strong bond spreads and surging corporate profits.

Short leading indicators are stable, highlighted by exceptionally positive initial jobless claims and record stock price highs, though narrow market leadership is a concern.

Manufacturing indicators have rebounded, but skyrocketing commodity prices likely reflect supply shortages, posing significant downside risk.

Coincident indicators show robust consumer spending and discretionary activity, yet tax withholding hovers just above neutral, awaiting further inflation data.

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Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to…