Photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street

The 2026 Budget will be make-or-break for Andy Burnham and John Healey; its reception by voters will set the narrative for the rest of this Parliament. In 2012, the “Omnishambles” budget all but wrecked the Conservative Party’s advantage on the economy. (Though only Labour could squander the opportunity.) Talk of a “cost of living crisis” rang true in some sections of society, notably the Labour seats where Labour canvassers were canvassing, but not in the more middle-class marginals that mattered. That one budget helped give rise to voter unrest, the onset of Ukip and the serious chance that Ed Miliband could take Number 10. It wasn’t to be, but politics hinged on it for a while.

The Liz Truss mini-Budget (or should I say the Kwasi Kwarteng mini-Budget) of 2022 crashed Tory reputations on the economy on a scale unseen since Black Wednesday in the 1990s. It sent Labour soaring, and voters warmed to Keir Starmer as much as they ever would – which was: not much.…