The balloons had hardly dropped at Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s victory party in November when the former CIA operative and Democratic congresswoman was being floated as a possible 2028 White House contender. Her 15-point win, with a center-left platform that focused relentlessly on affordability and flipped 15 GOP cities and counties , was held up as a model for how moderate Democrats could win nationwide.

Since then, the first few months of Ms. Spanberger’s term have made clear how difficult it actually is to govern as a moderate when your party controls the state legislature and politics remain so polarized.

During her campaign, Ms. Spanberger said she had “ no plans ” to redraw Virginia’s congressional map and join the gerrymandering tit for tat that kicked off last summer after Texas Republicans redrew their districts to add more GOP-friendly seats.…