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In recent months, Americans have wagered more than 1.3 billion dollars on the outcomes of the midterms via Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market by volume and valuation . Kalshi already symbolized late-stage capitalism’s love affair with sports, but it has increasingly become a source of information—or speculation—about electoral politics, offering a market that priced every campaign event and polling blip. In the Michigan Senate race—which appeared to be among the most hotly contested in the country—Kalshi’s odds predicted a convincing victory for the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed.…