so we all know the ssw talk at this point is way overblown and any high latitude blocking is really just preventing any major warmth versus bringing in cold air. We know the pacific jet is dominating the pattern and flooding us with mild air. Obviously not trying to make a January or February call here, but nationally, what would need to happen/what patterns would we need to see to even entertain the idea of cold shots for certain geographic regions during November and December for that to change given what we know? It seems like an extremely low probability for the likelihood of real cold during the next couple of months (again, not talking beyond December although if any has longer range winter thoughts feel free to share). we know about the southwest storms and how they migrate to the central us in a week or so but in regards to temps, what could actually trigger a cold event in the next two months, however low the probability?