In a new investor note sent out this week, GF Securities’ Jeff Pu and Henry Huang project that Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to grow shipments in 2026, even as the global market is expected to shrink by more than 14%. Here are the details.

Apple bucks smartphone market downturn

For the past few weeks, several reports from IDC and Counterpoint Research have been mapping out the impact of rising memory costs on smartphone sales.

And while the numbers may vary slightly, it is increasingly clear that Apple has been able to weather the downturn better than its competitors.

This week, Pu and Huang released a new investor note reinforcing that trend, projecting that Apple will gain significant market share in 2026 as most of its major competitors see shipments decline.

According to the report, Apple is on track to close out 2026 as the only major smartphone manufacturer to increase shipments, with a projected 4% year-over-year gain to 257 million units.

That would keep Apple ahead of…