The 2026 blue tsunami owes a lot to the youth vote.

According to data from Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (Circle), which monitors youth civic engagement, early estimates show the second-highest youth turnout in a midterm election in 30 years, second only to 2018, when an estimated 31% of young voters turned out during Donald Trump’s first presidency.

Chart showing shift in margin, 2024 presidential election v 2026 Senate election, in percentage points. Younger counties shifting more than older counties (county where at least 25% of population is under 30)

While voters over 45 were roughly split between parties, voters ages 18-29 went for congressional Democrats at a 35-point edge , across race, gender, ethnicity, and education levels. Latino youth went for Trump by slim majorities in 2024; this year, they voted Democrat by margins of +10 to +15. 63% of young white men went for Trump in 2024; this cycle, 54% voted Dem.…