The Pacific is warming up—and not in the way surfers usually mean when they say “warm water.” NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook points toward an unusually powerful El Niño taking shape through the rest of 2026, potentially reshaping the weather map from California to the East Coast and well into the Pacific.

NOAA now gives El Niño better than a 90% chance of reaching “very strong” status during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. More remarkably, forecasters put the odds of an event reaching historic strength at 75% during October through December—meaning it could exceed the strength of every El Niño in NOAA’s record dating back to 1950.

And now, NOAA has released their climate predictions for the coming fall and winter . Let’s dive in.

View this post on Instagram

WAVES: Follow the Storm Track

Don’t expect NOAA to tell you whether your local break will be firing next Tuesday. Seasonal climate models operate on a much broader scale.…