Tesla has lowered its 2026 capital spending forecast. In its Q3 10-Q, the company now says it expects capital expenditures “to be in excess of $20 billion in 2026,” down from the “more than $25 billion” it had guided since April.

The change was in the 10-Q Tesla filed Wednesday, not in the shareholder letter it released the same day. And it lands in a quarter where Tesla reported $1.53 billion of positive free cash flow, a number that depends a lot on timing.

Tesla’s 2026 capex guidance keeps moving

Tesla started 2026 guiding to about $20 billion in capex. In April, it raised that to more than $25 billion, and in July, CFO Vaibhav Taneja reiterated the figure while Elon Musk called 2026 a “massive capex year.”

Now it’s back to “in excess of $20 billion.”

Tesla has spent $13.01 billion so far this year: $2.49 billion in Q1, $5.79 billion in Q2 and $4.73 billion in Q3. Hitting $25 billion would have required about $12 billion in Q4 alone, more than double its biggest quarter.…