I went through the first Polar Vortex wind reversal of every winter since 1958, and the earliest so far was November 28, in 1968 and again last winter. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs reverse the winds on November 4, and 95%+ of the ECMWF ensemble members now show a reversal and over 60% of GEFS and AIFS-ENS members.

This early in the season, it won’t act like a mid-winter event, and the Super El Niño adds its own push to the pattern. The clearest link so far is a cooler trend over parts of Europe, while a cooler signal over the eastern US in about 10 days is only partly tied to it, based on current forecast runs, and subject to change.

The bigger story may come later, as the seasonal models show another, stronger disruption in mid-winter.