Will Software Development Eventually Be Estimated in Tokens?

Recently, I had an interesting thought while working with AI coding tools.

For years, we’ve estimated software projects using hours, days, sprints, and story points. That’s how most teams plan and track work.

But AI is changing how we build software.

Today, many developers use AI to generate code, write tests, explain existing code, create documentation, and even help with system design discussions.

A task that previously took a day might now take a few hours with the help of AI.

This made me wonder:

What are we actually estimating now?

Traditionally, we estimated human effort.

For example:

Build a new API: 2 days

Add a dashboard: 3 days

Integrate a payment gateway: 5 days

But when AI is involved, the effort starts looking different.

The engineer may spend less time writing code and more time:

Understanding requirements

Reviewing AI-generated code

Validating business logic

Testing edge cases

Making architectural decisions

Could…