My wife and I are mid 30s, ~500k income, 2.2 million saved. We want to retire at about 4mil or so with a paid off house, which with our savings rate of like 150k a year could happen between 7-14 years from now depending on how the market does. We have a mortgage for ~750k at 5.6%, and my plan was sometime around ~3mil saved flip the switch and just start aggressively paying down the mortgage instead of investing, hoping to maybe line up paying off the house and retiring.

Now I’m normally more of a boglehead, not really into timing the market. BUT, given how frothy this market looks given the world state of affairs, I got to thinking. We have 2 things we have to do anyway, invest more, and pay down the house. Instead of just doing one then eventually doing the other in a linear fashion, is there a smarter way to prioritize. Is there anything I could intuit about potential future returns that would have me prioritize one over the other at a given time?

Anyone have any thoughts or advice?