The Kalshi 2026 midterm election prediction website arranged on a laptop in Forest Hills, New York, Oct. 28, 2026.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

More than 87% of all election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket gave the right candidate at least a 90% chance of winning their race 24 hours before election night, a CNBC analysis found.

Election night showed how traders reacted to real time midterm results, as trading activity surged and market prices shifted to Democrats after results from Indiana began rolling in before 7 p.m. on Nov. 3. Many midterm races were uncompetitive, which boosted the overall hit rate on prediction markets.

"I'd say prediction markets did pretty well," said Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University.…