Tariffs continue to rattle investors, yet they didn’t factor into my 2026 stock forecast . Why? Consider the “four e’s” – expectations, exemptions, evasion, and enforceability. They ensure the ups and downs of President Trump’s current and future levies pose more economic bark than bite.

To be sure, tariffs are always bad – especially for the country imposing them. US stocks’ serious lag versus world stocks in 2025 was partly because of that. Trump’s newer blanket 10% global trade taxes imposed (after the Supreme Court killed his “Liberation Day” tariffs ) aren’t good . Nor is his threat to raise that to 15%, or to squash the US-UK trade deal, or the 50% duty he threatened on China.

But for stocks, surprises matter most. Tariff turmoil is now old news, baked into expectations … and into stock prices. That is a 180-degree turn from last April, when the breadth, magnitude and sheer weirdness of Liberation Day duties startled the market.…