The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of next year.

Calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) found the UK was on course for a large shortfall in promised official development assistance at the end of 2027.

The researchers said the central forecast from the Treasury’s comparison of independent experts implied UK aid would be £410m less than anticipated – at only 0.29% of national income.

However, they said it was “very plausible” that the shortfall would be £580m, at only 0.28% of national income.…