SCN Global Flow Monitor — Supply Chain Network Dynamics

Hacker News·3 months ago

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15s threshold

Systemic Deficit (MMbbl/wk)

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Disruption Scenario

Shock Target

Scenario Preset

Capacity Retained 30%

Demand Elasticity ε 0.10

Supply Elasticity η 0.10

Horizon 26 wks

Shock target Collapse >60%
Degraded 10–60% Insulated
Overland / pipeline

SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast · UN Comtrade 2025 reported flows (sanctioned / unreported trade not represented) · arXiv:2607.17491