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Earnings Analysis

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Summary

Sandisk Corporation delivered record Q3 results, driven by surging NAND flash prices and strong earnings momentum. But NAND prices, as shown below, are normalizing, now in its 2nd month of normalization.

SNDK is rapidly shifting to multiyear NBM contracts to mitigate volatility as NAND prices normalize, aiming for greater margin stability.

NBM contracts now cover $41.6B in commitments, expected to account for 33% of bits shipped through FY27, potentially exceeding 50%. But NBM contracts cap additional payoffs.

I remain Neutral on SNDK stock, citing near-term volatility and capped upside as the new business model is digested by markets and customers.

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Investment Thesis

Among the record numbers that Sandisk Corporation ( SNDK ) reported in last week's quarterly earnings tape was a surprising twist in its business model, which is expected to account for a growing portion

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the…