A new global hunger report, a doomy State of the Climate, escalation against ships in Hormuz, oil refinery attacks, and a climate-wargame that humanity flunked.

Last Week in Collapse: October 11-17, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 251st weekly newsletter. The October 4-10, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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The IPCC group of scientists convened to work on its next landmark assessment report last week, though pressure is building from petrostates to delay publication of the report—scheduled to be released sometime in 2028. Postponing the major climate research document is one of the few things that China, Russia, India, and the United States can agree on. In the meantime, the Danish Meteorological Institute reported that the weakening AMOC may be able to have some of its strength restored if we can manage to reverse global warming. However, they say that the Antarctic Ice Sheet would not be able to reform itself once melted. “The loss of ice from the ice sheet continues even during periods when the global temperature in the model is kept stable.” Antarctica’s Doomsday Glacier is expected to continue melting for at least 150 more years. And, for this time of the year, Antarctic ice is at its second-lowest on record for October, surpassed only by 2023’s small quantity.

A Nature Geoscience study on Arctic sea ice concluded that “future winter sea ice extent may be nearly 1 million km2 lower than prior estimates across forthcoming decades and possible emissions scenarios.” Satellite imagery has meanwhile shown that Arctic multiyear ice is diminishing, replaced by thinner ice that lasts just one winter.

A study in Earth’s Future confirmed that “the evidence for large, human-caused climate change signals {the so-called Endangerment Finding} was already compelling in 2009 and has strengthened significantly since then.” Part of the Republic of the Congo felt its hottest October day at 38 °C (100 °F). Several sites in South Africa saw new October minimum temps as did part of western Tanzania. Peru tied its all-time highest temperature of 41.8°C (107 °F). Indonesia reportedly felt its warmest night of all-time at 29.3°C (85 °F), probably a result of the wildfires that are causing unrest and pollution.

The Gulf of Guinea felt its warmest minimum temperature for October, at 26.5 °C (80 °F) near Ghana’s coast. And somehow Siberia roasted under incredible minimum night temperatures (as high as 19 °C) and daytime temps over 30 °C. Several states in Southeast Asia also felt new monthly highs. And across several parts of England, severe Drought was declared following the region’s hottest summer on record.

A study in Science Advances concluded that, over a 20 year period, “52.4% of populated areas {worldwide} and 55.9% of the global population experienced increasing coexposure” to wildfire pollution (SFAP) & heat waves. Exposure was driven particularly in southern Africa, South America, and Arctic areas.

Another study in Science Advances took a look at the 2024 El Niño, which caused record rainfall, and warned that the precipitation record is probably going to be broken again. They write that “∼40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and ∼20% with El Niño variability….We can't say that 2027 will break the 2024 record. But the ingredients are lining up for another potentially exceptional year for global precipitation extremes.” 2026 is already expected to be the warmest year on record because of the Godzilla El Niño.

Deaths in Mexico hit six from the combined force of Hurricane Simon and tropical storm Rachel. President Trump is announcing further mineral & oil extraction from “our new and beautiful Greenland.” Fallout from El Niño is severely impacting Peru’s fishing industry, reducing fish populations and hurting industries that rely on Peru’s fishmeal (Peru produces 20% of the world’s fishmeal). Peru’s fishing industry is also expecting 140,000+ job losses through 2026 and 2027.

BioScience published its 10-page State of the Climate for 2026, and it’s basically a summary of the major climate risks and dangers the planet is facing. Experts say that today’s 30-year olds will likely experience “major changes associated with climate tipping points during their lifetime.” If Earth were a patient, the diagnosis would be stage 4 cancer—and the doctors are still practicing alternative medicine.

“We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system….Of 16 climate-related indicators, seven are currently at record extremes….Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion, remain the dominant drivers of these changes….Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher now than any time in the last 2 million years. Across the globe, extreme heat, floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires are no longer rare events but defining features of a changing planet….Climate change is increasingly interacting with global biodiversity loss, freshwater stress, food insecurity, pathogens, and geopolitical instability, amplifying risks across interconnected human and natural systems….In May of 2026, atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeded 428 ppm, which is ∼50% greater than pre-industrial levels….Glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass are now at record lows….Global tree cover loss due to fires was 10.8 million hectares in 2025, its third-highest level on record…Global economic growth during the last 4 years followed a strong post-pandemic rebound, with annual growth rates averaging around 3%....Beyond gradual climatic change, growing evidence suggests that the climate system may be entering a period of increasing instability characterized by accelerating warming, cascading feedbacks, tipping elements, and rising risks of irreversible change. Increasing energy imbalance, rising ocean heat content, weakening carbon sinks, and accelerating ice loss all point toward a climate system accumulating heat and stress at rates that may exceed earlier expectations. Extreme weather is also intensifying across many regions of the world…” -selections from the report

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The current Ebola outbreak turned 5 months old last week, and experts say it’s the fastest Ebola outbreak on record. Cases passed 9,000 and deaths crossed 4,300. A couple weeks after Kenya reported its first case, a second infection was confirmed in a man who had close contact with their first case; how many more might there be?

A 96-page study on Long COVID found that one’s “airway microbiota is linked to Long COVID severity, gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms,” specifically with lactic acid bacteria (LAB). “We also found that changes in the airway microbiome were linked not just to lung problems, but also to symptoms like brain fog and gut symptoms, suggesting the lung microbiome could have effects on health more broadly.”

A study from Nature looked at microplastics and found that they aren’t as inert as many people believe. As larger plastics break down, their surface area increases dramatically, and they release “reactive oxygen species” (ROS) into water (or blood), including the water in our cells. These ROS can damage proteins and cells.

The 2026 Global Hunger Index was released last week, and the 64-page report measures about 125 countries on a 0-100 scale (where 0 means no hunger and 50 is “extremely alarming”). The global GHI score is 18.1, up from 17.6 eight years ago, but largely unchanged. The most hungry nations included in the report are Sudan, Burundi, South Sudan, Somalia, the DRC, Chad, Madagascar, and Yemen.

“Each country’s GHI score is calculated based on a formula that combines four indicators…Undernourishment…Child stunting…Child wasting…Child mortality….Hunger remains highest in Africa South of the Sahara and South Asia….For the first time in the history of IPC reporting, the area-level classification Famine (IPC Phase 5)—in which catastrophic deprivation is accompanied by extreme critical levels of acute malnutrition and mortality across an area—was confirmed in two countries and territories in a single year: in parts of the Gaza Strip of the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Sudan…Weather extremes are another major driver of hunger across the region, particularly in Southern Africa….The escalation of the US-Israel-Iran war since late February 2026 has severe implications for food security in the region and globally, with major shipping disruptions and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz….while the world focuses on oil and gas, fertilizer shortages pose a more urgent risk to African economies….Resilience, however, should not be mistaken for immunity….” -excerpts

The IMF posted its biannual World Economic Outlook report on Monday. The document projects economic growth amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade barriers, and ever-innovating AI models. The document warns that the global energy shortage poses the greatest risk to national economies, and that most states are depleting their strategic petroleum reserves. As a result, growth for 2027 is expected to be lower than earlier predictions—but still higher than 2026. The executive summary warns: “A prolonged stalemate or further escalation in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices elevated and volatile, revive inflationary pressures, worsen fiscal and external balances, and weigh on growth. Further disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyberattacks, or extreme weather events could amplify these effects.”

Some say the only reasons the economy is still growing in 2026 is because of AI and national reserves of oil. The diesel shortage is expected to last until at least Q4 of 2027, and that’s if the Iran War ends soon. And AI has become so central to the U.S. ~~economy~~ stock market that asset managers are warning of a recession if efforts to regulate AI or data center construction come into effect.

A study in The Lancet examined a range of dangers posed to human health in the 21st century. Although most were of a health nature (smoking, obesity, alcohol use), they also examined more existential challenges like AI and global Nuclear War. The research determined that the most likely factors impacting disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were #1 obesity, #2 low education attainment, and #3 income inequality. Nuclear conflict and malicious use of AI (bioweapons) placed #4 and #5, though the scientists concede that these two “carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years….Other extinction risks such as asteroid collision and supervolcanoes were not included…Other potential extinction threats, such as mirror life, were also excluded because of insufficient evidence.” Interestingly, climate change, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and air pollution all ranked in the bottom 6 among the 17 threats examined. The full study is worth skimming, although you would need to sign up for a free Lancet account to access it.

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Protest leaders in India’s cockroach movement were jailed for a short time for entering prohibited grounds. Tens of thousands of anti-government protestors demonstrated in Tirana (pop: 600,000), Albania, against government corruption and university prices. The Collapse of a Pakistani school roof killed 35 and injured 45 others.

Worsening protests in France brought out over 500,000 people and quickly expanded into general anti-government and cost of living unrest. Hundreds were arrested amid looting and vandalism on Saturday; watch one video of the clashes. Some protestors set fire to the historic town hall in Limoges (pop: 130,000), which collapsed into flames.

The former President of the DRC, Joseph Kabila, announced an alliance with M23 rebel fighters waging war against the central government. The politics are complicated, to say the least: Kabila and the current President initially came to an arrangement to divide powers; those negotiations broke down and later led to Kabila being sentenced in absentia to death for treason and other charges.

In Sudan, Drought is affecting more than half the country, and “acute malnutrition” rates among children are rising; more than 20M people are facing acute hunger. The harvest season in Darfur is also below average. Although millions have returned to their homes over the past year, worsening drone warfare is threatening further displacement. Both parties blame each other for Friday attacks that killed dozens. Is the fear of Famine worse than the fear of War?

Rumors of a possible assassination plot (almost certainly by Russia) against Poland’s PM and defense minister rattled the country's security services. Two Romanian chemical tankers in the Black Sea caught fire after a Russian drone trespassed into Romania’s airspace. British officials are reportedly trying to raise awareness among the public about the coming likelihood of War, and necessary preparations. A long overnight attack in Ukraine’s Kirovohrad oblast left three dead and six injured. And Ukraine is reportedly out of Patriot interceptor missiles. Despite President Trump’s proclaimed “energy ceasefire,”, Ukraine continues to hit Russian refineries and data centers, while Russia continues to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. A not-so-coincidental throttling of Starlink speeds affected Ukraine during the week, disrupting Ukraine’s ability to launch drone attacks.

Houthi rebels have surrounded Taiz, a highland city about 65km (40 miles) from the Red Sea coast; it is still controlled by pro-Saudi forces. Yemen’s central government (the Saudi-backed coalition) is waging airstrikes across Houthi-controlled territory, hitting people and oil sites; Houthi forces are targeting Saudi airports and oil fields & buildings to deliver a pain that Saudi Arabia may not be able to endure. Houthis also hit Yemen’s presidential palace on Thursday, killing five & wounding sixteen. Possible U.S. involvement in the conflict would stretch the growing Iran War further.

Two cargo vessels were hit and sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, victims of Iranian drone strikes. October was the month with the highest Iranian strikes on commercial vessels yet, with 21 attacks—and that was on the 15th. That’s already eclipsed the 14 strikes in September. Trump is rumored to be considering using the “mother of all bombs” (MOAB) against Iran in the coming weeks, though it may worsen tensions further. In the West Bank & Gaza, the Palestinian Authority postponed elections from November 2026 until September 11th, 2027.

Rumors suggest troops from Eritrea and Ethiopia have entered each other’s territory, though other reports suggest both sides are moving soldiers around their own borders. The War also threatens to bring in outside parties interested in supporting one of the sides for geopolitical or economic gain. Ethiopia’s PM designated a caretaker government to administer Tigray and chart a course for future elections, but the new authority will not be recognized by forces at War with the government.

A short summary of a climate/war game exercise — or the full, 59-page official summary — conducted in September 2026 examined the effects of solar radiation modification (SRM) geoengineering (generally conducted by spraying particles into the atmosphere to reflect back sunlight) from Stardust Solutions and the responses from a range of actors: NGO people, state governments, international bodies, activists, indigenous groups, and Big Tech. In the incredibly complex simulation, American and Chinese interests caused friction and prevented meaningful cooperation, individual group interests clashed with the greater good, and the day was won by suspicion and strategic delays. It was too late to save the environment—and still not believed by all players to be in their interests to do so.

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-There are things you can do to prepare—so do them! This thread collects some ideas for Collapse activists or people just trying to build resilience.

-Inflation is coming for everything, according to this weekly observation from the Pacific Northwest. Traffic is getting worse, people are fed up with everything, the social contract is slowly unraveling, and it’s not even winter yet. And for some reason a local cafe is charging $10 for a cup of coffee.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, Halloween Doom, election predictions, travel advice, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?

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Last Week in Collapse: October 11-17, 2026