FT chart (S&P Capital IQ historicals, Bloomberg consensus) of combined free cash flow for Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon. Reading the chart roughly: it peaked around $230B in 2024, falls under $100B in 2026-27 as AI capex peaks (Amazon dips negative), then consensus has it passing $400B in 2029 and topping $600B by 2030.

That's a huge bet on AI monetizing through ads, cloud and commerce. What has to go right for 2029-30 to actually happen, and which of the four is most at risk if it doesn't?