Data: FactSet; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios

Traders are betting that oil prices will remain elevated for longer than they anticipated just weeks ago, threatening to prolong the inflationary pressures that businesses and consumers have weathered for months.

Why it matters: Oil inventories have helped cushion the blow from disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, but much of that buffer has been depleted since the war began.

The possibility of sustained price pressures into next year throws into doubt the logic that central banks traditionally rely upon to look through energy price shifts — that they represent a one-time shift in relative prices, not an ongoing inflationary process.

That leaves the global economy more vulnerable to another energy price surge, with potentially more lasting consequences for growth, inflation and interest rates than energy shocks of yore.

By the numbers: Oil futures for delivery in 2027 — contracts to buy or sell crude next year — have climbed to their highest levels since the…