Ukraine is facing its most precarious moment since the early days of the war. Since late July, Russia has used its growing stockpile of ballistic missiles and a new generation of jet-powered drones to dramatically intensify its long-range attacks. It is now targeting Ukrainian population centers all over the country, with a focus on logistics, transportation, and commercial infrastructure. According to Ukrainian intelligence reports, the Russian government is planning an even more intense campaign against energy and water supplies this winter in an attempt to decisively break Ukraine’s economy and society.

On October 9, U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to make Ukraine’s situation even more perilous when he announced a deal with Moscow to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russian diesel and called on Ukraine to suspend strikes on Russian oil refineries. Those strikes have been one of Ukraine’s most potent forms of counterpressure in recent months.…