Lloyds has warned that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could cost it £151m amid rising unemployment and inflation and a slowdown in the housing market.

The FTSE 100 group, whose brands include Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, issued a downbeat economic forecast that it said reflects the stagflationary consequences – the double hit of rising inflation at the same time as slower economic growth – for the UK and global economies.

Overall, Lloyds expects its base case for UK gross domestic product growth to be only 0.5% this year, lower than the 0.8% forecast by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month.

Lloyds forecasts include a rise in the UK unemployment rate to 5.6% by the second half of the year.…