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Energy Analysis

Summary

Occidental Petroleum remains a Buy, supported by a strengthened balance sheet, debt repayments advancing close to their target, and a low-cost diversified portfolio.

OXY’s 2026 guidance targets $5.5–$5.9B in CAPEX, $750M interest expense, and $1.2B+ FCF improvements, with production of 1,410–1,460 Mboed.

The near-term oil price boost from Middle East conflict aids deleveraging, but normalization could pressure margins and valuation if fundamentals weaken.

With a new CEO and an intrinsic value estimated above current levels, OXY is positioned for long-term value, though volatility and macro risks persist.

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Introduction

The last time I covered Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ), I downgraded them to a Buy after a significant rally since covering them in December, highlighting their balance sheet improvements following the OxyChem sale, a solid dividend

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the…