What about Blue and Uncle Sam?

Another mitigating factor could be the rapid acceleration of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket launch cadence. Henry said Quilty adopted a conservative forecast, predicting eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030.

“I’d be happy to be proven wrong,” he said. “And Blue has been in development for so long, they could come out of the gate swinging.”

Blue Origin, he noted, is building the production capacity for up to 150 upper stages annually, but it will of course take time to launch such a large rocket at a high rate.

A final wild card is the US military. The current phase of the national security launch program has two lanes. The first lane is for missions with a higher risk tolerance. Any company that has launched a rocket successfully a single time is eligible to bid on these missions. For now, this includes Falcon rockets, New Glenn, and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, but a new generation of medium-lift rockets should join within the next year or two.…