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Summary

IREN is a leveraged play on AI data center buildout, with equity resembling a long-dated call option.

Despite heavy dilution and $12B in additional funding needs, IREN's $4B contracted ARR and Microsoft partnership underpin a Buy rating.

At 6.3x base case FY28 EBITDA, the market prices in significant execution risk; I target $37.65 (48% upside) with high volatility.

I size IREN as a speculative position, adding only if November results confirm contracted capacity converts to revenue on schedule.

JasonDoiy/iStock via Getty Images

In May, IREN ( IREN ) sold $2.6 billion of convertible notes that pay 1% and convert at about $73 a share. Seven months earlier it had sold $875 million of zero-coupon notes convertible

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.…