The US military struck Iran's Qeshm Island on midterm day, even as both governments had signaled openness to talks just days earlier. Oil bounced hard after the news, recovering most of the prior session's losses, because any near-term deal to add Iranian barrels to global supply now looks off the table.

Iran's geography is the key factor here. About 20% of all seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and every time a credible sanctions deal gets close, crude softens on the expectation of more supply. Strikes on Iranian soil snap that expectation closed, and traders bought the dip almost immediately.

The CIA director was publicly pushing for more economic pressure on Iran the same week diplomacy looked possible, which means oil prices are being driven by a government running 2 directions at once. Does that split get resolved before summer, or does crude stay elevated through July regardless of what either side says?