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Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on

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Oct. 24, 2026, 5:00 AM EDT

In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with the popular vote behind him and his Republican Party winning majorities in both the House and Senate.

Just two years later, the country appears to be shifting in the opposite direction. Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in power in Washington, and Democrats hope to capitalize on deep voter dissatisfaction with the president’s job performance and what they’ve framed as a crisis of affordability that Republicans have done little to abate. The battle for the Senate, always more of an uphill climb for Democrats to win, appears close, with limited public polling showing tight contests in a number of key states.

The House, however, appears to be Democrats’ to lose.…

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