- **Where we left off.** Two weeks ago I posted about our live "order absorption" card. When a big taker order pushes the price, 2 minutes later the move has either faded (absorbed) or held (pierced). About half fade, half stick. I ended by saying I couldn't show it predicts anything.

- **What I did.** I rebuilt the card's exact logic on Binance's public trade files and made a ledger of every big order: 1,045,082 orders on BTC, ETH and SOL, Apr 2023 – Sep 2026.

- **Coin flip, three and a half years later.** The median day still sits at 49.9% absorbed.

- **The pre-registered question:** when an order pierces, does the price keep going? **No, it gives a little back.** About −1 bp over the next 15 minutes (t −3.6 for pierced minus absorbed) and −1.8 bp over an hour. Absorbed orders stay put.

- Same sign on all three coins; clear after the spot ETFs.

- **Size of it:** 1–2 bp against 20 bp of round-trip fees. Not a trade.…