O n Tuesday, Israelis will vote in their first election since Hamas’s deadly October 2023 attacks and the unprecedented wars on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

It has been billed as one of the most consequential elections in Israel’s history. Many see it as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

Unseating Netanyahu is a very real possibility: most polls show the bloc of his main challenger , ex-army chief Gadi Eisenkot, securing a razor-thin lead.

But even with that outcome, the reality is very little fundamental change.

Very little will be different for the millions of Palestinians crammed into a destroyed Gaza, where, despite Israeli denials, a UN Commission of Inquiry found Israel is committing genocide.

Or for the millions of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, surrounded by ever-growing settlements that are illegal under international law, where there is an unprecedented surge in settler violence and massive military operations.

Whatever happens, there is unlikely…