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Summary

The S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied for six consecutive weeks, driven by concentrated AI/semi trade gains, but faces mounting risks ahead.

Oil's surge above $100 on the back of stalled negotiations between the US and Iran and a strengthening dollar threaten bond market stability, raising stagflation and liquidity crisis risks.

Earnings and index gains are highly concentrated in a handful of AI-related stocks, increasing vulnerability to momentum reversal and volatility.

This week can also give markets a reality check, with April CPI, PPI and Retail Sales reports coming out, along with the appointment of a new Fed chair on Friday.

I maintain a 'hold' on SPY due to stretched sentiment, upcoming economic data, Fed chair transition, and unattractive risk-reward at current levels.

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