I thought this deserved its own separate post given there's a different post linking to Eric Berger's Ars Technica article claiming 22 launches.

Q: Will Robinson Smith with Spaceflight Now. Question to Jeremy. We heard yesterday during the ASAP panel discussion that the latest estimate for the number of flights for refueling for Starship was going to be around the order of 22. That was pretty quickly refuted by Elon Musk on social media, saying it's closer to 6 to 8.

Jeremy Parsons: Yeah.

Q cont: Which end is closer, based on the the data that you have right now, are we looking at higher double digits, higher single digits, somewhere in the middle? I know it's still in flux. As you know, we're waiting for the propellant transfer demo. Thanks.

Jeremy Parsons: So, so we were definitely not tracking as high as 22, unless you know, your transfer efficiency and performance wasn't the same.…