Over decades of repressive government, public opinion surveys in Venezuela became increasingly rare before they stopped entirely – because citizens were too afraid to answer honestly.

But after the United States’ capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January, when pollsters ask Venezuelans whom they would vote for in elections, one name has consistently topped the list: María Corina Machado. This, despite the opposition leader having been out of direct contact with her fellow citizens for close to two years, while in hiding and exile.

On Sunday, Ms. Machado returned home, announcing her surprise arrival with a brief post on the social platform X: “I am here. With you.”

Almost immediately, thousands of Venezuelans poured into the streets and highways as she attended a church service near the western border, before traveling to the capital, Caracas.…