Forecasters expect the polar vortex to break down in early November, weeks earlier than it ever has.

Weather models show the winds circling high above the North Pole slowing down and reversing around Nov. 4, which could split the vortex in two, Severe Weather Europe reported . The European ensemble gives that reversal a 96% chance. The American ensemble has it at 71%.

No major disruption has come this early since records began in 1959. The earliest so far happened on Nov. 28, in 1968 and again in 2025, according to polarvortex.earth, as cited by Capital Weather . This one would beat that by about three weeks.

“This will be, I think almost undoubtedly, the largest, earliest disruption of the polar vortex on record,” Judah Cohen, a research scientist at MIT, told Fox Weather .

What It Could Mean for the East

The polar vortex normally keeps the coldest air up near the Arctic.…