A breach is announced on X. Screenshots spread. Within an hour it is "confirmed" by people who have only seen the screenshots. Most of the time, nobody has checked anything yet.

What a breach claim usually is

Claims surface on social media, Telegram channels and forums, often with a sample and a record count. Some are real. Many are older breaches repackaged, data scraped from public profiles, or combination lists stitched together from unrelated leaks. The claim is a lead. It is not yet a fact.

Question 1: who is the source?

A new account with no history, or a seller who profits from attention, is a lead to follow up, not a confirmation. Look at what the same source has claimed before and how much of it held up.

Question 2: do the numbers agree?

Real disclosures are usually internally consistent: the record count, the fields described and the dates line up.…