Google Brand Lift & Conversion Lift studies use the same underlying idea of statistical certainty. But certainty is not the same thing as answering the business question that matters most: if you spend the money again, how likely are you to reproduce the result?

Let’s start with a phrase that causes me to cringe every time I hear it: “directional results.”

It sounds sophisticated. Nuanced. Even reasonable. But what does it actually mean?

Answer: Just about anything you want it to mean!

I was reminded of this while reading Google’s official guidance on how to interpret Google/YouTube’s Brand Lift, Search Lift, and Conversion Lift studies.

It made me pause. Then sad.…